Monday
13 March 2000
0830-1030 (L)
Every age has its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions, and its own peculiar preconceptions.
Carl von Clausewitz
Only hysteria entertains the idea that . . . Japan contemplates war upon us.
John Foster Dulles, 1941
Purpose
The purpose of this lesson is (1) to explore global military trends that are likely to confront US military strategists over the next twenty years and (2) to gain a sense of the ability of the military components of the United States Intelligence Community to forecast threats.
Learning Objectives
1. Analyze the nature and military implications of current and emerging trends and threats.
2. Comprehend how intelligence and threat assessments shape military planning and operations at the national level.
Discussion
Every age has its own kind of war. Given the continuing relevance of Clausewitz's dictum cited above, it follows that the strategist's assessments and forecasts of the future are critical. In particular, the strategist must develop the skills to judge others' assessments-probing advisers to reveal underlying evidence, assumptions and trains of logic.
The purpose of this next set of topics is to offer you an opportunity to reflect upon the military challenges of the future, so that you can evaluate better our current strategy and create strategic alternatives. We will begin with a series of readings, and a presentation by the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, that describe the broad contours of the military security environment that we think will exist for the remainder of your careers. But no one can know these things with certainty. The central purpose of this block is to stimulate what you think!
Issues for Consideration
1. What changes in the threat environment do you see developing over the next twenty years: The emergence of a rival superpower or a peer competitor? A world of multiple power centers? A division between stable, developed countries and highly unstable, lesser-developed countries? A complete collapse of the international order? A series of revolutionary technological breakthroughs? Or, perhaps, some combination of these scenarios?
2. What are some of the characteristics these threats have in common? What are the key variables? If there is a pattern, what insights can you derive? If all you can see is a series of random events, what does that tell you?
3. What are the implications of your assessment for the probability of conflict; the kind of wars likely to be fought; and the forces we'll need to deal with these contingencies?
4. What is your appraisal of how well national military intelligence supports the formulation and implementation of long-term strategy? What are some of the key differences in perspective between intelligence analysts and the military planners?
5. What are the tensions between planning for the short-term versus the long-term? What are the different risks and opportunities inherent in planning for the most probable vice the most difficult scenarios? What are the costs, risks and opportunities of "worst case" planning, or concentrating primarily on capabilities or intentions of potential opponents, allies and neutrals?
6. Archer - Given the overview presented in this lesson, are there some new and unique military challenges that could emerge in our scenario?
Required Readings
Students should read either reading #1 or #2, plus all the other readings listed here.
1. Hans Binnendijk and Richard Kugler (eds), Strategic Assessment 1999: Priorities for a Turbulent World, Institute for National Security Studies, 1999. "Key Findings," pp. xi-xx, and Chapter IV, "Global Military Balance: Stable or Unstable?" pp. 55-68. (Student Issue)
2. US Commission on National Security/21st Century, New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century - Supporting Research and Analysis, pp. 5-21; 46-59; 141-145. (Student Issue)
3. Russ Travers, "The Coming Intelligence Failure," Studies in Intelligence (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 1997), pp. 35-43. (Reprint)
4. Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, "Inventing Threats," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, (March/April, 1998), pp. 32-39. (Reprint)
5. Richard K. Betts, "Intelligence Warning: Old Problems, New Agendas," Parameters, vol XXVIII, no 1 (Spring, 1998), pp. 26-35. (Reprint)
Recommended Readings
1. Jean-Marie Guehenno, "The Impact of Globalization on Strategy," Survival, Winter 1998-99, pp. 5-19.
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