EXTERNAL POLICY ENVIRONMENT
Philippine National Defense Policy is based on an adequate appreciation of internal and external strategic developments which impact, directly or indirectly, on the defense and security of the country. The external strategic setting can be broadly categorized into two overlapping landscapes: global and regional. On the other hand, the internal strategic setting covets national geography and political, economic and social developments within the country. Realizing the inter-relationship of these strategic developments, Philippine defense policy recognizes the dynamics that weave together internal and external developments -global and regional, regional and national. Invariably, it takes cognizance of the important role that relations between and among nations play in the security and defense of our country.
This chapter discusses the global and regional security environment that shape and continues to shape Philippine defense policy. From the global security environment, we will examine the interplay of economics and security in the Asia-Pacific and the evolving security architecture in the region focusing on the roles played by the major powers (China, Japan, Russia and the United States), the Association of Southeast. Asian Nations or ASEAN and the middle powers in East Asia.
THE GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
The global security environment has undergone profound changes during the last decade. Rapid political, economic, social and technological changes are seriously challenging national and international processes and institutions. The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the bipolar structure of the Cold War -and the discipline it imposed on inter-state relations- have resulted in new patterns of security relationships with yet unclear characteristics and norms of behavior. In the economic sphere. nations are experiencing progress and growth through a spirit of interdependence.
The prospect for global nuclear war has receded but tribal, ethnic and religious tensions, suppressed during the Cold War, have been unleashed in many places around the world -in the former Yugoslav, and Soviet Union, in Africa and in the Middle East. Civil wars continue in such places as Afghanistan, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Rwanda, Somalia and Algeria, Newly industrialized economies and regional trading blocks have created global political realignments and new strategic arrangements which are still in the process of maturing. The bull impact of these global changes is not yet in sight nor easily predictable.
Thus far, we can discern two emerging strategic developments, the direction and content of which must be taken into account in formulating national defense policy. These developments am first. globalization and interdependence and, second, regional tensions and conflicts.
Globalization and Interdependence
The world has become much more politically and economically integrated. An event in one part of the world affects the others, the impact varying based on proximity and the nature and extent of political and economic relationship. Tensions in the former Yugoslavia or in the Middle East affect Southeast Asia in terms of involvement in UN peacekeeping operations, in the short term, or in the disruption of supply of resources like oil, and loss of trade, in the long tern. Globalization and interdependence are exemplified by the global production process of multinational corporations in industries like car manufacturing, electronics and computers. They also characterize financial and investment undertakings and the activities of non-governmental organizations and the media. Advancements in technology, particularly in the field of communication and information processing, have been the most important factor in this development.
Increasing economic networking has evolved into cooperative economic groupings such as the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU). This has made possible for the first time the regulation of world trade through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) -World Trade Organization (WTO). Countries now realize that economic development and political stability can only be achieved by cooperation on a worldwide scale. The realization is universal that the benefits of the new world economic order an. attainable only under a climate of stability, Such realization could drive the international community, particularly the major members of the aforementioned economic organizations to exert greater effort to promote the stability in areas where their economic interests are most affected.
Globalization and interdependence have both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, it has opened enormous opportunities for development and growth. The meshing of growing economies enhances mutual security as national security depends not so mach anymore on arms and alliances but primarily on peaceful commerce and economic integration. On the negative side, development and growth are accompanied by imbalances and hazards, many of them unforeseeable. Increased interdependence increases the risk of transmitting economic or financial shocks from one country to another as exemplified by the financial crisis presently gripping East Asia. Moreover, if the result is only development unequally distributed and enjoyed, interdependence will sharpen the differences between the economic status of states which could generate political conflict. As the world moves toward economic integration, the risks of instability and the benefits of cooperation will be together at work.
A dark side to globalization and Interdependence is the emergence of transnational problems, particularly environmental concerns and transnational crimes. To address these problems, international cooperation is vital as no nation will be able to effectively deal with transnational problems on their own.
As to environmental issues, we have seen, over the past decade, how the quest for economic progress has eroded the environment through air pollution, the dumping of hazardous industrial wastes, the destruction of our forests and the abuse and misuse of maritime resources. Environmental hazards like acid rain, oil spills and air pollution do not recognize national boundaries. The haze that affected Southeast Asia in late 1997 as a result of uncontrolled forest fires in Indonesia is a grim reminder of the dangers that environmental problems pose. The destruction of the ecology presents serious health problems and, in the long term, destroys resources essential to sustained economic growth
The permeability of national borders. the ease of travel and communication, uneven economic development and increasing migration have led to the rise of transnational crimes as security threats. Today, the security of the nation and the region is being assaulted by international terrorism, trafficking in drugs, illegal migration, arms trafficking and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction, money laundering, fraud and counterfeiting. These criminal activities undermine economic gains and threaten the achievement of national goals.
Regional Tensions and Conflicts
Another strategic development is the rise of regional tensions and conflicts. Some are remmants of the Cold War and the others, the results of its demise. Around the world, historical, ethnic, social-cultural, religious and political forces of antagonisms and contradictions, subdued during the Cold War era, have been unshackled. These have been exacerbated by increasingly assertive aspirations of self-determination. The result has been tremendous uncertainty and in some parts of the world, violence and turmoil which have required the intervention of United Nations peacekeeping forces. Regional tensions have also been made more complex by the involvement of both major and middle powers.
As globalization has made the planet more and more integrated, tensions and conflicts anywhere in the world affect, to a certain degree, our national security and defense. Some regional tensions are of relatively less concern to the country's policy makers than others, as they are geographically remote or have no significant and direct impact on national security. Some, however, although distant, are of direct security concern. These are the continuing tensions in the Middle East and in the Indian sub-continent.
The economics and politics of oil in the Middle East are inextricably linked to global and regional stability and our national security. Any deterioration in the Middle East situation would directly affect the Philippines as it would cause the disruption of our oil sypply. This could lead to negative economic, and in turn, security repercussions. A steep rise in the prices of g adds, triggered by the increased cost of fuel, could ignite social disturbances and lead to political instability. On the other hand, a low-level armed conflict between India and Pakistan which could lead to a possible nuclear exchange would have serious political and economic repercussions throughout the surrounding regions, not to mention the destructive effects on the environment due to the nuclear fallout.
The situation in the Middle East spawned by the Gulf War has only partially stabilized and the US maintains a substantial naval force in the area. Iraq continues to possess a militant attitude despite economic sanctions. It retains a sizable and by Middle East standards, credible military strength which is reported to possess weapons at mass destruction, particularly chemical and biological weapons. With a mercurial political leadership, Iraq continues to be a cause of concern to her neighbors and the rest of the world.
US-Iran relations remain hostile with deep-rooted antagonisms. Recent overtures of informal exchanges between the two countries from the Iranian leadership offer hope for renewed diplomatic relations in the future. However , much needs to be done to remove long-held distrust and contempt of Iran for the US. The Iranian population remains restive and suspicious of any move to open relations with the United States.
Confrontation between Israel and the Arab countries have been a problem for more than 50 years. The Arab-Israeli conflict had initially made a positive turn with the Israel-PLO agreement but the continued occupation by Israel of Palestinian-claimed areas has made the situation uneasy with occasional flare-ups of violence and the continuous threat of war.
In the Indian Sob-continent, it is generally believed that India and Pakistan already possess nuclear capability. Further, the reported development of missile delivery systems and the refusal of India to agree to the Non-proliferation Treaty has raised the threshold of their confrontation to a critical level. It is encouraging to note, however, that both countries are exerting efforts to seek a peaceful compromise of their conflict over Kashmir.
In East Asia, the notion that the end of the Cold War would give countries a breathing spell to focus on national problems and priorities was broken by the events in the Taiwan straits, in the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea. In early 1995, the Philippines figure it prominently in the South China Sea dispute because of Chinese structures found on Panganiban Reef which is located in the Kalayaan island Group, 135 miles from the island at Palawan and is part of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone. Elsewhere in the region, there are other territorial and maritime disputes which have been the object of occasional and brief flare-ups. In the long term, they are potential flashpoints that, if not managed well, can lead to destabilizing tensions or conflicts.
Another dimension that has exacerbated in the aftermath of regional conflicts is international terrorism, either slate-sponsored or by independent groups. The Philippines is directly affected by this transnational threat because of the continuing secessionist problem in the South, a segment of which espouses terrorism as a means of attaining political ends and which is reported to have connections with terrorist groups in the Middle East. Other terrorist groups are based in Europe and Japan, and these also have worldwide operational networks.
ECONOMICS AND SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC
In the Asia-Pacific, major political developments have taken place that have collectively enhanced regional peace and cooperation. The end of ideological conflict has made possible ASEAN's expansion to include the Indochinese states: Vietnam. Myanmar, Laos and perhaps on a late, date, Cambodia which is experiencing some political difficulties at this time. In Northeast Asia, the Implosion of the Soviet Union removed the strategic reason for a de facto US-China alliance, an alliance that had earlier contained the Soviet Union and restrained China, just as the more explicit alliances of the United States in the area continues to restrain and reassure Japan and Korea.
These developments and the emergence of China as an economic colossus with increasing military capabilities raise a chain of security questions in the Asia-Pacific. Will China decide to pursue hegemony and carve out a sphere of influence on its own? Will Japan, in reaction, draw closer to the United States for protection; or will it uncouple itself, rearm even to the extent of developing nuclear weapons, and alarm both China and Korea? Will a unified Korea, in reaction to both possible developments, feet compelled to develop an independent nuclear capability? Besides these long-term questions, there are the more immediate issues in the Korean Peninsula, the China-Taiwan tensions and the South China Sea dispute.
Security Concerns in the Asia-Pacific
In the short term, the security outlook for Asia-Pacific looks positive as a result of economic cooperation coupled with security dialogues. However, there are points of tension and conflict that could be factors for destabilization and these should be closely watched. The various unresolved territorial and maritime disputes any one of which could spark off a local conflict and destabilize the entire region ran be carefully monitored. At present, of the many disputes, three are of foremost concern: the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Straits, and the South China Sea dispute. Untoward incidents in those areas have the potential for destabilizing the region, more so because the interests of major regional powers intersect in these areas.
Other unresolved territorial disputes which should be monitored as they are potential flashpoints include the Japan-Russia dispute over the Kuriles or Northern Territories; China-Japan over the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands; Japan and South Korea over the Takeshima or Tokdo islands; Malaysia and the Philippines over Sabah; Singapore and Malaysia over Pulau Batu Putih; Indonesia and Malaysia over Pulau Sipadan and Ligitan; and Vietnam and Indonesia over Natuna island. Another long term regional security concern is the military modernization programs of countries in East Asia. Left unmonitored and unchecked it can lead to a destabilizing arms race. These issues demonstrate the fragility of the security situation in the Asia-Pacific which requires vigilant monitoring and continuous situational analysis.
Korean Peninsula
The lingering ideological enmities in the Korean Peninsula-still in the wintry grip of the Cold War-could after the entire security equation in the region. The armies of the two Koreas, facing each other across the demilitarized zone (DMZ), are in a constant stale of high alert, ready for battle at all times. If not intentional, war can be a result of accident or inadvertence. This already tense situation has been exacerbated by the suspected a fort of North Korea to develop a nuclear capability. The economic hardship and reported famine in North Korea can be a boon or a bane depending on whether the North Korean leadership takes the dangerous military option or a mom pragmatic and peaceful economic option.
The outbreak of armed conflict in the Korean peninsula would, in a likelihood, involve the United State., China and Japan. The United States has a defense treaty with South Korea and has forces supporting the South Korean armed forces on the DMZ. Japan, whose major population and industrial centers are within reach of North Korean missiles, has a mutual defense treaty with the United States. In case of deployment, logistics and operational support would come from US forces based in Japan. China's role is also important if not indispensable to the management of the conflict because of its influence on the North Korean political and military leadership.
There is hope in the ongoing peace efforts through the four party talks involving the United States, China, South and North Korea. However, until a clear agreement can be reached, there remains a great deal of uncertainty and the eruption of hostilities between the two Koreas remains a dangerous possibility.
China-Taiwan Straits
It makes reasonable strategic sense to expect that China's position on Taiwan will not change and that reunification remains high on its priority, The live-fire military maneuvers of the Chinese PLA Navy across the Taiwan Straits in February 1996 and the ensuing intervention of the US in the form of a naval show of force manifest the seriously destabilizing potential of China-Taiwan relations. The US has a security arrangement with Taiwan which may unavoidably be brought into play in case of a repeat of the 1996 China-Taiwan Straits incident. The repercussions of this conflict are portentous not only to regional but also to global stability of particular concern to the Philippines is the influx of refugees from Taiwan because of its geographical proximity and the safety of Filipinos in Taiwan.
Security concerns in East Asia
South-China Sea Dispute
The South China Sea (SCS) is an area vital to regional stability and development it is an important sea lane of communication crucial to the economic development of the region. Today, forty (40) Percent of the world's maritime trade, which include energy and raw materials essential to the booming economies of Southeast and Northeast Asia, passes through the South China Sea, Moreover, the area contains vast marine resources and is believed to contain huge deposits of oil and gas.
Six countries claim, in whole or in part, the South China Sea-China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia. Brunei and the Philippines. The Philippines claims the Kalayaan Island Group and physically occupies eight islands, the largest and most well known of which is Pag-asa island. The South China Sea dispute is complicated by the fact that it involves both land and marine jurisdictions. The Philippines is deeply concerned with the South China Sea area for a number of reasons: its proximity (135 miles from the Palawan mainland); the fact that it straddles the trade routes in East Asia; and the need to protect the maritime environment within the area. Defense-wise, it is a historical fact that the Spratlys were used as launching areas for aggression in Southeast Asia during the Second World War.
How sensitive a flashpoint the South China Sea can be was demonstrated by the alarms set off in the Philippines and around the region by the Chinese occupation in early 1995 of Panganiban Reef. Prior to this, three destabilizing incidents have occurred in the area: in 1972 when China occupied the Paracel islands; in 1988 when China and Vietnamese vessels were sank and 72 people were killed; and in 1992 when China deployed submarines to and occupied Da Lac Reef.
The 1995 Panganiban Reef incident has subsided as the claimant countries reaffirmed their common desire to peacefully resolve any conflict and to adhere to internationally recognized laws like United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The declared willingness of China to recognize the application of international law, particularly the UNCLOS, in managing the dispute is encouraging. Furthermore, the Philippines and China have agreed on a code of conduct in 1995 pledging both sides to resolve territorial disputes without the threat or use of force. A similar agreement was also entered into between the Philippines and Vietnam. It must be noted that in 1992, ASEAN member countries signed the Manila Declaration on the South China Sea, a statement of the common desire of the claimants in the Spratlys to peacefully settle the conflict.
Regional Military Modernization
Economic growth has enabled many countries in East Asia to modernize their armed forces as a result of increasing defense and military budgets. The procurement of modern arms can be explained by a number of factors: the need to create self-reliant defense in the light of regional uncertainties; the broadening of security concerns to include the protection of maritime areas and the Exclusive Economic Zone or EEZ; the shift from internal to external defense; and the inherent desire of national prestige.
Regional military modernization is not a near term concern as the present arms build-up is not unwarranted and is a natural consequence of a nation's legitimate defense and security concerns. Moreover, the weapons being procured are designed to be integrated into the armed forces of countries with generally defensive orientations. However, in the long term, increased arms acquisition, especially weapons that enable force projection and forward deployment, can fuel suspicions of an "arms race" which could undermine regional confidence and stability.
Linkage Between Economics and Security
The economy of the Asia-Pacific region, in the last decade or so, has been characterized by increasing intra-regional trade and investment. The Asia-Pacific has evolved into a region composed of countries that are highly interdependent economically on one another. Seventy (70) percent of the trade of these countries is with other countries in the Asia-Pacific. Trade among East Asians is already larger than trans-Pacific trade with North America. East As is has reached out to Europe through the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) which seeks to augment Asia-Europe ties by enhancing economic and political cooperation.
The Asia-Pacific region is likely to face uncertainties and challenges that will arise from the linkage of economics and security -what the President compares to "two rivers intersecting end flowing into one another". Market-driven development, coupled with interdependence, has the tendency to erode national sovereignty and to challenge national borders, leading to a host of security problems. The positive trends in economic growth achieved by many countries in the region will add to or create now national wealth and power. Unfortunately, they can also heighten nationalist assertiveness and induce shifts in the pattern of security relations in the region. This shift needs to be carefully managed to avoid destabilizing tendencies. Indeed, economic interdependence may not by itself prevent conflicts but it does raise the cost and the threshold for using force, especially among the major powers.
The proper management of security issues is an important fact or in ensuring the momentum of economic progress now being enjoyed. It is high time that the region upgrades its institutions of political cooperation to reflect more accurately the intensity of regional economic and security interdependence. However, it must be noted that security and economic issues, while related, are not reducible to one another. In each area, there are clear tasks that must be tackled and attended to with firm resolve.
At present, developments in security relations among nations have not matched the advancements in the economic front. It is ironic that while regional economic cooperation has flourished, regional security cooperation has yet to be fully developed. While regulation has been established in the new world economic order, no similar arrangement is in place to regulate security relations. In the conduct of security affairs, each nation is still very much guided by national sovereignty. On the part of some countries, the lack of transparency and inconsistency of actions invite misunderstanding of their national security policy. Indeed, much ground has been achieved in attaining closer political interaction in the area of security but the idea of a collective regional security grouping is still being debated.
For the moment, regional security is addressed in the ASEAN Regional Forum which serves as the venue for the discussion of security issues. On the other hand, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation serves as the vehicle for economic interdependence. ASEAN established the ARF in 1994 as a forum where questions of regional security and stability can be periodically examined and discussed together by all countries concerned. Through this forum, countries in the region may strive to ensure that regional security concerns will remain the subject of cooperation and consensus rather than of contention and conflict. The ARF is maturing and it is hoped that it will move from confidence-building to preventive diplomacy and eventually, to conflict resolution with appropriate mechanisms for addressing the security concerns of the region.
ARF and APEC, working side by side in the region, serve to promote regional trust and confidence. They complement each other. The two groupings together ensure the continuing presence and forward deployment of the United States in the region. They can help defuse the Washington-Tokyo trade conflict, integrate China more expeditiously into the Asia-Pacific economy and create a role for Japan as a stabilizing force in Asia-Pacific.
ROLE OF MAJOR POWERS IN ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY
The interests of four major powers-the United States, China, Japan and Russia-intersect in the Asia-Pacific region. The role which they have to play in the region in the pursuit of their respective national interests and their interaction with one another constitute an important element of the dynamics of Asia-Pacific security. In the near term, regional stability will be conditioned to a great extent by the triangular relationship between the United States, China and Japan as Russia is preoccupied with internal problems. The regional environment continues to be unsettled because these three major powers have yet to clarify their interests and intentions. A balance has yet to be established among them and until individual countries in East Asia have gained enough mutual trust to organize into a viable cooperative security system, regional stability will have to depend on a balance of power. Regional stability will be enhanced if these three powers will find accommodation in each others intersecting interests. Confrontation would surely be destabilizing for the region.
As of now, many things remain unclear; the extent of US commitment to the region; China's intentions in the South China Sea and its commitment to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea; how a new Russia will evolve from the ideological ruins of the Soviet Union; and how Japan's defense posture will unfold in the future.
United States
For almost five decades, the presence of the United States was the most important stabilizing force in regional security. The end of the Cold War has not ended the importance of American presence in the Asia-Pacific over the foreseeable future. The United States must continue to be the main prop, the fulcrum of the East Asian balance of power in order to preserve the bubble of stability that keeps East Asia's economic miracle going. America's presence provides a measure of certainty during periods of tension and strife. At present, the defense arrangements of the US with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines and Thailand, as well as the access agreement with Singapore, ensure American presence in the Asia-Pacific. Without US presence, regional balance would require a much higher military capability for Japan and other East Asian powers. In this sense, the US-Japan alliance reinforces regional stability by assuring that Japan will not need to develop a force projection capability which could have destabilizing effects on the region.
American political commitment helps provide a climate of stability conducive to the economic growth of countries in the region and to a dynamic intra-regional economic cooperation. Most countries in the Asia-Pacific welcome and continue to press for American presence in the region despite debates in the US to lessen its military Commitments abroad. While there appear to be doubts as to the capability of the US to remain a visible, reliable, and predictable partner, given defense budget constraints and the renewal of political debates about the costs and benefits of US commitments to international initiatives, American security interests in the region remain significant. The US is not yet ready, security-wise, to withdraw from the region. The tilt of its population away from its Atlantic coast, the influx of Asian migrants and the weight of its Asia-Pacific economic interests have made the United States more and more an Asia-Pacific player. Thus, it makes strategic sense to say that the US regards as a direct threat to her own interests the military domination of a single power in the region.
People's Republic of China
China is predicted to become the world's largest economy in the next two decades. The success of reform and modernization In all areas of her economy has accentuated the emergence of China as an important player in regional affairs. In particular, the development of the southern provinces has led to much greater interaction with neighboring countries and the increasing involvement of China in the Asia-Pacific community. The future will see a China that will have considerable political, economic and military influence on East Asia. How China exercises its clout is a concern to all countries in the region. Regional effort most endeavor to integrate China into the Asia-Pacific community, to discourage Chinese intrusiveness and encourage every trend that ties the Chinese economy more tightly with those of its neighbors in the Asia-Pacific. The continued progress of Asia-Pacific depends to a great extent on China's integration with the rest of the region.
China is rapidly matching its economic interest for trade with the rest of the world with its security interest of maintaining peace and stability in the world. It has displayed a growing willingness to become involved in the de development of a security dialogue trough the ARF process and to discuss sensitive issues like the in lure of the South China Sea with other claimant countries. It is important to regional stability that this process is sustained. Constructive involvement by China in regional security affairs will be an important ingredient for regional stability. The ability of China, together with other regional countries to share more information about its future direction and intentions and to play a positive role in the exercise of shared responsibility for enhancing peace and stability in the region, are essential a this process.
Despite China's apparent interest and its efforts to promote regional security, there are still varying perceptions that need to be reconciled to bring about a greater understanding of China. The questions of Taiwan and the South China Sea are prime examples of where such differences in perceptions occur. China's strong territorial claim of the South China Sea, her unyielding position regarding Taiwan, interference on how other countries conduct their relations with Taiwan and the lack of transparency in the modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) are some of the thing a that contribute to the uncertainty about China.
Japan
Japan's importance as a regional actor is derived from its economic power and high state of technological advancement. Its stable political system, advanced economy and close security ties with the United States, continue to be important elements in the security of East Asia. In recent years, Japan's economic interaction with countries in the region has enhanced the economic development of East Asian countries enabling some of them to become newly industrialized economies. Japan is the largest source of direct foreign investment for Southeast Asia and it is the principal trading, investment and aid partner of individual countries within the region, surpassing the United States in many cases.
Japan's continued development and national survival depend, to a great extent, on the free flow of sea-borne trade, much of which flows through the South China Sea. Likewise, more than two thirds of its oil supply passes through this disputed area. Disruption of this vital sea lane of communication would have deleterious effects on its economy. It is therefore to Japan's interest that Southeast Asia remains a stable region. Its involvement in the Cambodian peace process demonstrated the strength of its commitment to regional stability. Japan's positive participation to both APEC and ARF highlights its shared interests with the countries in ASEAN.
Pressures are building up on how Japan can translate its economic strength into an equivalent security involvement, at least in the region. if not in the world, The new guidelines of the Japan-US Security Treaty give Japan the opportunity to rise above its cold war alliance with the US. Now, Japan can play a less passive and increasingly constructive role in dealing with conflict situations in East Asia while also enabling the United States to count on a regional ally who would share the costs of maintaining peace in the region. In addition, its bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council signifies a move towards the assumption of an increased political and security role compatible with its economic clout. Japan's membership in the Security Council can same to enhance its full integration into the world community.
A greater political role for Japan in the future depends on a number of factors: the rise of a new generation who have not experienced the Second World War, the continuing commitment of the Unified States to regional security and a pragmatic need for a counterweight to China's growing influence. The wariness of some neighboring countries about the future consequences of a greater role for Japan can be allayed by the ability of Japan to demonstrate that her growing security involvement responds primarily to collective and consensual preferences among countries in the region. Japan's enhanced political role, given its worldwide trade and investments, its lack of natural resources and its extreme vulnerability to nuclear conflict, is likely to be exercised on the aide of regional peace and stability.
Russia
Russia's preoccupation with her internal Problems has made her play a lass active role in the Asia-Pacific. It remains, however, an important country in regional affairs and thus, its continuing involvement in the security dialogue with countries in the region is desirable. Russia's scientific and technological capabilities remain as valuable components of regional development. It maintains a substantial military presence in Northeast Asia which could play an important role in regional security. Engagement of Russia is essential to the long term security prospects of the region.
ROLE OF ASEAN AND MIDDLE POWERS
The Philippines regards its membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as its primary foreign commitment and the larger Asia-Pacific region as the cornerstone at Philippine foreign relations. It recognizes the potential of ASEAN in playing a major role as a middle power in regional stability, by itself and in relation to the major powers, now and in the future. The internal stability of the member countries of ASEAN is an indispensable lector to regional stability. Its interaction with the powers in the region constitutes a vital element for regional peace and stability. The organization therefore plays a crucial role in easing the transition of Southeast Asia from the Cold War to a new order. Apparently, only ASEAN-which is active in cooperation in various functional areas, to include security-enjoys a real presence as a political grouping in Asia.
The ASEAN states, along with Australia and New Zealand, have shown that the middle powers need not be passive spectators to the interplay among the major powers In the region. By strengthening their linkages and Pooling talents, capabilities and resources, the middle powers can have a strong voice in crafting the future of the Asia-Pacific. Southeast Asian countries cannot and will not watch idly the interaction of the major powers especially if the regional situation resulting from such interaction would be adverse. They can do something to influence the course of events and work for the region's interests.
ASEAN has taken initiatives towards promoting stability in the region following a strategic framework that balances security, economic and technological relations with all the great powers. It has espoused the concept of a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOFPAN), and corellarily forged the treaty of a Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ). As its founders foresaw, ASEAN has become a stabilizing influence and the local point for security cooperation in East Asia -initially through the Post Ministerial Conference and now, through the ASEAN Regional Forum. ASEAN has also given full support to regional "track two" system of unofficial discussions and cooperative activities, in particular, the Indonesia, sponsored workshop series on managing potential conflict in the South China Sea.
In the economic front, the ASEAN Free Trade Area, which will be fully implemented by 2003, is designed to promote freedom of inter-ASEAN trade and economic cooperation. This is a significant lector in the acceleration of economic development of the member countries and in the preservation of domestic and regional stability. Further, the ASEAN economies are also members of APEC, which marries the western and eastern halves of the Pacific. The East Asian Growth Area (EAGA) is expected to accelerate the economic growth of the common border areas of the four member nations -Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines (BIMP)- through trade and in vestments, and thus, further contribute to ASEAN solidarity.
Front the defense prospective, ASEAN's distinct contribution to the attainment of regional stability in recent years lies in three areas:
First, in the ASEAN Regional Forum. An ASEAN creation and initiative, the ARF is composed of ASEAN member countries and several consultative and dialogue partners, to include the major powers , which play important roles in regional stability. ARF provides a forum lot promoting transparency and confidence-building through dialogue in addressing the security concerns of the region. Flexible, informal and consensual, ARF complements the older network of bilateral and subregional mechanisms in the work of building the architecture for East Asian security. It is to be hoped that the ARF will eventually evolve into an effective mechanism for preventive diplomacy and eventually, conflict resolution.
Second, in confidence-building measures. CBMs are mainly in the form of friendly and cooperative activities among the defense and military establishments of member countries, CBMs include activities like personnel exchanges, naval visits, joint training, intelligence-sharing and training exchanges. These measures go a long way in developing and maintaining the trust and confidence among ASEAN member countries.
And third, in developing a mutual benefit framework lot the long term solution of the South China Sea dispute. This has been achieved through participation in South China Sea workshops and conferences, and the follow-up efforts for the joint peaceful development of the disputed area. The 1992 ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea symbolizes the ASEAN resolve to Settle the dispute without the use or threat of force.
A crucial factor in the success of ASEAN is its unique process that combines dialogue, consensus and cooperation. ASEAN processes are motivated by a sense of community, enhanced by a wide spectrum of cooperation, notably economic, with dialogue and consensus as its primary process of conflict resolution. ASEAN's negotiating principles of consultation and consensus -of "Musjanverah" and "Mufakat", and of "Bayanihan"- have already become the recognized standard operating procedure for both APEC and the ARF. By following the principle of first building political trust before acting, working slowly and incrementally, informally but steadily, ASEAN state now enjoy peace and stability and at the same time, experience remarkable growth and development.
The enlargement of ASEAN into ten member, to include Laos, Myanmar and later on, Cambodia, contributes to regional stability and ensures that ASEAN will have a greater part to play in regional security affairs. Strategically situated, connecting the northern and southern Parts of Asia, ASEAN-10 will be a Political entity that will play a major role as a collective voice in regional security affairs. ASEAN integration will ensure that Southeast Asia is safeguarded from the intervention of outside Powers. At present and eventually with ASEAN-10, ASEAN holds in its hands the opportunity, individually and collectively, to have a say in shaping the emerging regional security configuration, one that will insure the continuity of the growth and progress of all its members and the stability of the region.
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