Thursday
4 November 1999
0830-1130 (L/S)
The information revolution is creating a Revolution in Military Affairs that will fundamentally change the way U.S. forces fight.
Secretary of Defense William Cohen, May 1997
Introduction:
Beginning with the first topic, this course has examined several instances in which drastic changes occurred in the character or conduct of warfare. Those changes included those resulting from the political and social upheaval of the French Revolution, but more often changes followed the introduction of new technologies. In the nineteenth century, first with the use of railroads and telegraph, later with the use of rifled weapons, mass production techniques, better metallurgy, and other by-products of the industrial revolution, the face of warfare changed. The impact of this transformation became dramatically evident in the conduct of the First World War. Later, the exploitation of new weapons such as the airplane, submarine, aircraft carrier, and the tank brought a new style of warfare in World War II. That war, ending with the use of atomic weapons, introduced many of the weapons that have characterized warfare down to the present day.
Now, more than half a century later, many factors point to the possibility that fundamental changes in warfare are again occurring. Commentators have identified several sources of change, some of them political or social, others technological. First, the demise of the Soviet Union ended the superpower competition that had characterized the years of the Cold War and the limits that confrontation had placed on so-called "peripheral wars," i.e., wars involving smaller powers aligned with either of the superpowers. Second, and related to the first, commentators cite the apparent decline of state power and sovereignty, and the concurrent rise of non-state actors in the international competition, as bringing about a different kind of warfare, dominated by low level violence with few distinctions between combatants and noncombatants. Finally, many point to the introduction of new technologies, centered upon dramatic advances in computing power, sensors, information processing, and a host of other technologies based on the micro-chip, as introducing new forms of warfare. The term Revolution in Military Affairs has been applied to all of these factors, but most commonly refers to the probable effects of the trends in technology. This topic will look specifically at the technological aspects of change and their implications; the next topic will look more broadly at future dimensions of warfare.
The Gulf War showed some of the effects possible with the employment of stealth, precision guided munitions, and enhanced information collection and distribution systems. To some analysts, NATO's war for Kosovo demonstrates that a revolution in military affairs has indeed occurred. The distinguished British military historian John Keegan points to Operation Allied Force as a vindication that such tools as stealth and precision can now independently achieve victory-though his view is by no means universal. Developments in technology continue to enhance the possibilities for new weapon systems or the radical restructuring of current classes of weapons. Examples include use of space systems, lasers, robotics, advanced sensors and display capabilities, and a host of other computer-aided systems. At the heart of these advances lie information-processing technologies. Many analysts claim the next step is the development of "information warfare," in which information is not simply an enabler of other systems but itself becomes a weapon of war.
The history of technological innovation has shown that the effective employment of new technologies requires organizational and doctrinal adaptation. The readings identify many current technological developments and analyze their potential implications. Match these ideas with your own theory of warfare to determine for yourself whether a military revolution is truly underway.
Objectives:
- Understand the technological capabilities, doctrinal implications, and organizational factors underpinning what is termed an impending "revolution in military affairs."
- Analyze the impact of current changes on the character, conduct, and perhaps even the nature of war.
Issues for Consideration:
- Will technology succeed in making the battlefield more "transparent? If it does, will this "transparency" result in the dissipation of the "fog and friction" of war? Why or why not?
- Which type of forces (land, naval, air, space, special operations) will be most dramatically affected by the technological changes on the horizon? What will be the effect on roles, missions and functions of military forces?
- What sort of doctrinal changes are required to employ the emerging technologies most effectively? What sort of organizational adaptation is required?
- What do you see as the effect of information technologies on warfare in the future: an enabler of the traditional forms of warfare, or a new form of warfare in itself?
Required Readings:
* Eliot A. Cohen, "A Revolution in Warfare," Foreign Affairs, No. 75, March/April 1996, pp. 37-54. (Reprint)
* Mark Helprin, "Revolution of Dissolution?" Forbes (23 Februrary 1998), pp. 86-102. (Reprint)
* Paul K. Van Riper and F. G. Hoffman, "Pursuing the Real Revolution in Military Affairs: Exploring Knowledge-Based Warfare," in National Security Studies Quarterly (Summer 1998), pp. 1-19. (Reprint)
* James R. Blaker, "Revolution(s) in Military Affairs: Why the Critique?" in National Security Studies Quarterly (Winter 1999), pp. 83-89. (Reprint)
* F. G. Hoffman, "Why the Critique? An Author's Response," in National Security Studies Quarterly (Winter 1999), pp. 89-91. (Reprint)
* James Stavridis, "The Second Revolution" Joint Force Quarterly, No. 15, Spring 1997, pp. 8-13. (Reprint)
* Arsenio T. Gumahad II, "The Profession of Arms in the Information Age," Joint Force Quarterly, No. 15, Spring 1997, pp. 14-20. (Reprint)
* John Keegan, "Please, Mr Blair, Never Take Such a Risk Again," The (London) Daily Telegraph, 6 June 1999. (Reprint)
Supplemental Readings:
* John Arquilla, "The Velvet Revolution in Military Affairs," World Policy Journal, Number 4, Winter 1997/1998, pp. 32-43
* Antulio J. Echavarria II, "Dynamic Inter-Dimensionality: A Revolution in Military Theory," Joint Force Quarterly, No. 15, Spring 1997, pp. 29-36.
* Major General Zheng Qinsheng, "Military Conflicts in the New Era," Chinese Views of Future Warfare, ed. Michael Pillsbury (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1997), pp. 399-407.
 |
 |
 |